Long-term quantitative assessment of policy scenarios

Specific contract for long-term quantitative assessment of policy scenarios for the EU transport system

Since 2016, TRT holds a framework contract for the simulation of long-term scenarios relating to the evolution of the transport system up to 2050 in EU 27 Member States.

Scenarios and their variants are assessed with the use of European scale simulation models by TRT and E3Modelling. The modelling tools are:

• TRUST, for the quantification of traffic impacts on road and rail networks and of specific emissions on the European territory;
• PRIMES-TREMOVE, for the quantification of the evolution of the vehicle fleet of different transport modes and of the related energy consumption starting from changes in costs and/or legislation on technologies;
• GEM-E3, for the quantification of macroeconomic impacts.

Studies carried out under the framework contract concern the development of baselines, scenarios and variants focusing on transport, energy and macroeconomic systems and providing results at EU member state level.

Within the Framework Contract a new Reference Scenario 2020 which takes into account the expected medium-term impact of the COVID-19 outbreak has been produced.